Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.012348 0.013991 0.015777 0.017862 0.020232 0.022842 0.025937
2025-04-20 0.009967 0.012275 0.015001 0.018466 0.022756 0.027906 0.034570
2025-04-27 0.008623 0.011238 0.014510 0.018915 0.024704 0.032075 0.042207
2025-05-04 0.007729 0.010550 0.014249 0.019470 0.026675 0.036307 0.050226
2025-05-11 0.006805 0.009664 0.013568 0.019307 0.027566 0.039083 0.056465
2025-05-18 0.006123 0.009009 0.013094 0.019321 0.028630 0.042111 0.063270
2025-05-25 0.005478 0.008323 0.012482 0.019038 0.029178 0.044380 0.069106
2025-06-01 0.005079 0.007951 0.012278 0.019314 0.030553 0.047956 0.077231
2025-06-08 0.004639 0.007465 0.011845 0.019174 0.031236 0.050483 0.083889
2025-06-15 0.004404 0.007277 0.011850 0.019717 0.033039 0.054922 0.094064
2025-06-22 0.003956 0.006696 0.011168 0.019055 0.032770 0.055905 0.098451
2025-06-29 0.003624 0.006279 0.010713 0.018728 0.033020 0.057752 0.104469
2025-07-06 0.003252 0.005765 0.010061 0.018013 0.032555 0.058367 0.108435
2025-07-13 0.003129 0.005676 0.010136 0.018596 0.034468 0.063381 0.121011
2025-07-20 0.002996 0.005556 0.010143 0.019050 0.036173 0.068154 0.133587
2025-07-27 0.002888 0.005474 0.010207 0.019609 0.038120 0.073539 0.147874
2025-08-03 0.002693 0.005208 0.009908 0.019445 0.038644 0.076224 0.157011
2025-08-10 0.002539 0.005007 0.009711 0.019460 0.039517 0.079659 0.168002
2025-08-17 0.002363 0.004747 0.009381 0.019174 0.039748 0.081811 0.176489
2025-08-24 0.002264 0.004635 0.009330 0.019452 0.041167 0.086518 0.190927
2025-08-31 0.002129 0.004436 0.009089 0.019311 0.041680 0.089359 0.201519
2025-09-07 0.002073 0.004396 0.009169 0.019858 0.043724 0.095656 0.220522
2025-09-14 0.001906 0.004108 0.008708 0.019191 0.043032 0.095889 0.225544